Kalshi Parlay Bettors Losing Far More Than Headline $294M Figure Suggests: Report
A Gambling Insider analysis finds Kalshi "combo" bettors lose up to 35 cents per dollar staked, far worse than the blended figure widely reported.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited by the ON360 newsroom.
Ordinary bettors placing “combo” wagers on U.S. prediction market Kalshi are losing far more money than a widely cited headline figure suggests, according to a data analysis by trade publication Gambling Insider. The outlet found that recreational parlay buyers lost as much as 35 cents for every dollar staked over a recent two-week stretch — well above the loss rate typically kept by regulated sportsbooks on comparable parlay bets.
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Bloomberg reported earlier this year that Kalshi bettors had lost a net $294 million since January on the exchange’s multi-leg “combo” markets — Kalshi’s term for a parlay-style bet that pays out only if every leg of a prediction comes true. Gambling Insider says it independently rebuilt that calculation and confirmed the figure, which works out to roughly 9 cents lost per dollar wagered.
Two very different groups hiding in one number
The problem, according to the analysis, is that the headline figure blends together two opposite groups of traders. On Kalshi’s combo markets, a “YES” position backs a parlay to land, functioning much like a traditional sportsbook slip. A “NO” position bets against someone else’s parlay landing — something no sportsbook customer can normally do — often paying a high price for a small, near-certain profit.
Gambling Insider examined every recorded trade across a large sample of roughly 4.6 million combo markets that settled between July 14 and July 27. It found parlay buyers (the “YES” side) staked $226 million and lost $79 million — a 35-cent loss per dollar. Excluding the World Cup final, on which buyers lost 86 cents of every dollar staked, the loss rate across the other 13 days was still 16.6 cents per dollar.
Meanwhile, traders on the opposing “NO” side staked $204 million — almost as much as the buyers — and won $43 million, a 21-cent profit per dollar staked. On five of the 14 days examined, including the eve of the World Cup final, the NO side reportedly outstaked parlay buyers outright.
How the blended figure compares to regulated sportsbooks
When the two groups are combined, overall “taker” flow lost 8.4 cents per dollar — closely matching the widely reported year-to-date figure. Gambling Insider argues that blended number is arithmetically accurate but economically misleading, since it nets recreational losses against the gains of sophisticated traders betting the other way.
On that blended basis, Kalshi’s parlay product looks cheaper for bettors than a traditional sportsbook, whose official regulatory filings in New Jersey and Maryland show parlay hold rates of roughly 19 to 21 cents per dollar. But isolating actual parlay buyers puts their losses at or above that sportsbook range even before Kalshi’s transaction fees are factored in, the outlet reported.
Independent market maker Leonidas Mastrokostas, who has told Bloomberg he makes seven figures a month trading Kalshi’s combo markets, previously argued that competition among market makers ultimately benefits bettors: “Given the competition of many makers there, they’ll ultimately lose less.” Gambling Insider said Mastrokostas did not respond to a request for comment on its findings.
Why it matters north of the border
Kalshi is not licensed to offer wagering products in Ontario or any other Canadian province, and prediction markets remain a grey area for regulators here as U.S. exchanges push into sports-adjacent contracts. The findings are nonetheless relevant as Ontario’s regulated operators, overseen by the AGCO and iGaming Ontario, continue to market parlay-style bets themselves.
Multi-leg parlays carry inherently long odds of winning regardless of where they are offered. Players in Ontario’s regulated market have access to responsible-gambling tools such as deposit limits, spending trackers and self-exclusion through operators registered with iGaming Ontario, none of which apply to unregulated prediction-market platforms.